TL;DR Summary:
CTR Can Mislead: Shopping ad click-through rates are rising because impressions are dropping faster than clicks, so the percentage looks better even when performance is not improving.AI Overviews May Shift Traffic: The pattern may come from Google showing AI Overviews on lower-intent searches while keeping Shopping ads on higher-intent ones, creating a split between visibility and clicks.Check Real Performance: Track impressions, clicks, traffic, and conversions together, since a higher CTR on fewer impressions can hide flat or declining results.Why is my Shopping ad click-through rate going up while my sales stay flat? That question has a possible answer, and it points to AI Overviews Shopping Ad CTR and Impressions data showing a strange split: clicks are steady, impressions are dropping, and Google’s AI answers may be the reason. If you run Shopping campaigns, this matters right now because a rising CTR might not mean your ads are working better.
The AI Overviews Shopping Ad CTR and Impressions Pattern, Explained
Mike Ryan, head of ecommerce at Smarter Ecommerce, spotted the pattern in his company’s Market Observer benchmark data. Shopping CTRs were climbing, so he checked outside data from Optmyzr, which showed CTR up 17% year over year. That number was close to the roughly 20% increase Ryan already saw. He then reviewed thousands of Shopping and Performance Max campaigns across hundreds of advertiser accounts. Clicks stayed flat or dropped slightly. Impressions fell more sharply. That combination pushes CTR up even though your ads aren’t earning more attention.
Why Impressions Are Falling Faster Than Clicks
Ryan’s theory centers on how Google decides which queries get an AI Overview, the AI-written summary that appears above regular search results. He suspects Google shows AI Overviews more often for searches with a lower chance of producing an ad click. Meanwhile, Google keeps Shopping ads on searches more likely to convert. If true, this would explain why impressions drop without clicks dropping at the same rate. You lose visibility on lower-intent searches while keeping your presence on higher-intent ones. Since Google isn’t offering advertisers a clear breakdown of how AI Overviews and Shopping ads interact behind the scenes, many teams are turning to platforms like Nuwtonic SEO to fill in that gap, using its visibility tracking to see which queries are being absorbed by AI answers instead of driving ad impressions.
Experience Switching and What It Means for Your Campaigns
Ryan calls this pattern “experience switching.” He says he rarely sees Shopping ads and AI Overviews on the same results page. Usually it’s one or the other. This suggests Google is choosing which experience to show based on the query, not showing both together. For your account, this means the AI Overviews Shopping Ad CTR and Impressions relationship isn’t uniform across all searches. Some queries may have shifted entirely away from Shopping ads and into AI Overviews.
What Ryan Says Is Still Unconfirmed
Ryan is direct about the limits of his data. He has not proven that AI Overviews cause the shift in Shopping ad impressions. The timing could be a coincidence. Another factor entirely could explain the drop. Treat this as a hypothesis, not a confirmed cause. Ryan does expect Google to eventually merge these separate experiences, moving toward a “both/and” model where Shopping ads appear directly inside AI Overviews rather than instead of them.
How to Read Your Own Shopping Ad CTR and Impressions Data
If your CTR is rising, check your impression volume before you celebrate. A higher percentage on fewer impressions can mean the same clicks, or fewer, spread across a smaller pool of searches. Look at total clicks and total traffic alongside CTR. This gives you a clearer picture of whether your campaigns are actually performing better or simply showing up less.
Watch your impression counts closely over the next few months, not just your CTR percentage. If impressions keep falling while clicks hold steady, the AI Overviews Shopping Ad CTR and Impressions link that Ryan describes may be affecting your account too. Track total traffic and conversions as your real measure of performance until Google clarifies how it decides between showing an AI Overview or a Shopping ad. If you want deeper visibility into how AI Overviews are affecting your traffic beyond Shopping campaigns, tools like Nuwtonic’s AI search tracking track citation and visibility gaps across AI search results, helping you see where AI answers are pulling attention away from your listings.
